0Z GFS moves the area of weak CAPE a little bit east to north of London at
18Z with the convergence zone to the west so a few storms seem possible say
from the Wash SWwards.Winds aloft are weak and no strong cap is in place.
(High based Cu is readily forming in SE London area and trying to tower.)So
nothing severe is likely, but an interesting feature of the 06Z Larkhill
ascent is a steep lapse rate in the mid-lower troposphere.
Strong frontogenesis ,as seen in WV, is occuring on the cold front in the
west and models are producing significant rain as a surface low forms.This
might well produce some thunder,


--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply