I'm a bit surprised at the minimum temperatures forecast on BBC1 at 6.30
p.m. this evening. Single figure mins were predicted for Scotland but
elsewhere double figure mins were predicted. I haven't looked into it in
much detail but for this part of the country the McKenzie method
predicts a min of around 7-8C, assuming light winds and only small
amounts of cloud. This would be quite a bit colder than the TV forecast
suggested.

I have noticed for some time now that the forecast minimum temperatures
seem to err on the high side on radiation nights. I'm not certain but I
think that this apparent systematic error started at the time of the
introduction of the new graphics. It may be a presentation problem
rather than a forecasting problem.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
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Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England