"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
I'm a bit surprised at the minimum temperatures forecast on BBC1 at 6.30
p.m. this evening. Single figure mins were predicted for Scotland but
elsewhere double figure mins were predicted. I haven't looked into it in
much detail but for this part of the country the McKenzie method predicts
a min of around 7-8C, assuming light winds and only small amounts of
cloud. This would be quite a bit colder than the TV forecast suggested.

I have noticed for some time now that the forecast minimum temperatures
seem to err on the high side on radiation nights. I'm not certain but I
think that this apparent systematic error started at the time of the
introduction of the new graphics. It may be a presentation problem rather
than a forecasting problem.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

Currently 10.4 so single figures soon.
I recall that when the graphics were first introduced one of the presenters
saying that the mins were for towns and cities. I assume that as the
majority live there that the mins indicated are more relevant to them than
us rural dwellers.

--
David Mitchell, 70m amsl, Langtoft, East Riding of Yorkshire.