You're all very lucky you can use McKenzie!

Try forecasting the min. at Haytor! McKenzie doesn't work as we rarely get
radiation nights. There are always patches of cloud to surprise you,
always that
subtle increase in wind speed either due to the low-level jet or the
effect of
the hills, always that subtle change in wind direction going from a land
direction to a sea direction causing the temperature to rise and
vice-versa, and
of course in winter that surprise snowfall as the wet-bulb freezing level
falls
in precipitation and the temperature plummets rapidly.

I ignore all TV and radio forecast mins as they will never apply to my
locality
(nor should they, as hardly anyone lives here). Instead I use my judgement
as
best I can using available data and also climatology. Wind direction seems
to be
an important variable. With a wind speed 5 knots or more from a close sea
direction in November and December you can forget a frost at Haytor, mins
will
normally then be in the range 0-2 degrees C on a clear night.

So in my area forecast mins are sometimes too high and sometimes too low
and
occasionally right,
Oh the joys of weather forecasting :-)

Will.

Hi, Will,

This post made me smile a little also. To forecast a min within 3C on
radiation nights is almost inpossible in hill country. In Copley alone at my
sites barely 400 metres apart horizontally and 35 metres vertically the
difference can be up to 4C. The Met O site rarely gets calm nights, as in
Haytor, but they are quite common at the Lead Mill, especially in winter.

Best wishes,

--
Ken Cook
Copley (253m, 830ft) & Copley Lead Mill (218m, 715ft)
5 miles north of Barnard Castle, County Durham.
http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/copley