Another recent paper from the Journal of Climate of interest-

Qian, Budong, and Mark A. Saunders, 2003: Summer U.K. Temperature and Its Links to Preceding
Eurasian Snow Cover, North Atlantic SSTs, and the NAO. J. Climate, 16 (24), 4108-4120.
Motivated by an attempt to predict summer (June–August) U.K. temperatures, the time-lagged
correlations between summer U.K. and European temperatures and prior snow cover, North Atlantic sea
surface temperatures (SSTs), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are examined. The analysis
centers on the 30-yr period 1972–2001 corresponding to the interval of reliable satellite-derived
land snow cover data. A significant association is found between late winter Eurasian snow cover and
upcoming summer temperatures over the British Isles and adjacent areas, this link being strongest
with January–March snow cover. Significant links are also observed between summer temperatures and
the preceding late winter NAO index and with a leading principal component of North Atlantic SST
variability. The physical mechanisms underlying these time-lagged correlations are investigated by
studying the associated variability in large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Euro–Atlantic
sector. Seasonal expansion in the Azores high pressure system may play an important role in the
time-lagged relationships. The potential seasonal predictability of summer U.K. temperatures during
the period 1972–2001 is assessed by cross-validated hindcasts and usable predictive skill is found.
However, the presence and cause of temporal instability in the time-lagged relationships over longer
periods of time requires further investigation.

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regards,
david
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