In article ,
Phil Layton writes:
Philips column in the Tele was quite interesting. He was saying that the
NAO, which has been used as evidence for this (cold) forthcoming winter, was
more likely a result of the previous winter, rather than a sign for the
forthcoming one!

Apparently the MO predict the coming winter's NAO based on May's
Atlantic SST anomalies. I suppose that those May anomalies are going to
be greatly influenced by what the previous winter's circulation pattern
was like.

I wonder why May is used. You would think that taking a later month
would give a better prediction. Surely it can't require several months
to process the data?
--
John Hall "Do you have cornflakes in America?"
"Well, actually, they're American."
"So what brings you to Britain then if you have cornflakes already?"
Bill Bryson: "Notes from a Small Island"