"Nick G" wrote in message
...
As Graham said recently, 80% chance this winter will be warmer than
normal. H. H. Lamb used the 7/10 rule, whatever the season before, the
following season will be similar in terms of temperature in 7/10 cases
until the cycle is broken.

So we can say 80%, or not, once we know what autumn 2005 was like.

Victor