I took this from the Met Office Site:

This forecast is produced using a combination of statistical models, such as
the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and complex climate models with
interpretation by operational forecasters.
Our latest predictions indicate a colder than average winter for much of
Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK - especially southern regions -
are expected to have temperatures below normal.

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

Confidence in long-range predictions is relatively low compared to our
normal short-period forecasts. Typically the broad features of the forecast
for the European region are correct two out of every three occasions. Using
a traffic light analogy we consider that people should be on amber alert for
the prospect of a colder-than-average winter.

There is also an indication for a drier-than-average winter over much of the
UK.

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These are the values I recorded during the 1995/96 winter

December 1995
Lowest Day Time Temp = 0.4 Temps over the month were on the cold side
Lowest Night Time Temp = -3.1 Frosty end to the month

January 1996
Lowest Day Time Temp = -0.8 Very mild until the last week
Lowest Night Time Temp = -3.9 The last week was frosty

February 1996
Lowest Day Time Temp = 1.2 Generally on the mild side
Lowest Night Time Temp = -1.8 Several frosty spells throughout the month

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December 1996
Lowest Day Time Temp = -1.0 The last week was cold
Lowest Night Time Temp = -3.0 The last week was very frosty

January 1997
Lowest Day Time Temp = -2.0 First 11 days very cold
Lowest Night Time Temp = -4.4 First 10 days of month had a frost. There was
a frost every night from 23rd December '96, to 10th January '97 ( 19
consecutive days )

February 1997
Lowest Day Time Temp = 6.3 Extremely mild
Lowest Night Time Temp = 0.7 Mostly mild


The period from December 23rd 1996 to 10th January 1997 was by far the
coldest such period in the last 10 years, at least where I was living in
Gillingham, Kent at the time. Even this cold spell pails into
insignificance compared with February 1991 and even that doesn't come close
to what I would consider the last really severe winter in 1987 ( January ).
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style winter with
one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss about????

Shaun Pudwell.