Graham P Davis wrote:

Graham,

Thankyou for that in depth explanation of the 'observed' effects the
SST's can/may have on our weather, I've saved that post so I can digest
it further. Although I'm sure these are many other factors to the whole
equation, I'm sure the SST's hold a large percentage to the overall effect.

Would I be correct in saying that the SST anomaly has the effect on the
weather at that time, or is it a knock on effect, eg a cool pool south
of the Grand Banks now, may determine the weather type in December say?
I ask this because I beleive that the Met Office based it's earlier
forecast on the May 2005 SST's, which seemed strange to me.

I was also wondering what effect the receeding ice sheets of the Arctic
have on the SST's and the position of the jet streams. One could imagine
that these would migrate further north leaving the UK in a dryer regime.
Azores high further north leading to more Northwesterly type weather or
conversely, pressure higher to the south of the UK, possibly leading to
more easterlies in some years.

I must add, I am not here to critise any such long range forecast, just
trying to understand the mechanics and dynamics from where it was
derrived. I guess we all strive to understand the complexity of our
weather and hope to find holy grail one day. :-)

Thanks for all the posts on this thread.
--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net