That's all true, however they are talking about the winter overall, not just
a two week period. My reasons for being concerned are that I live on an
island ( Sheppey ) with awkward access at the best of times. A prolonged
cold/snowy winter would create major problems here. We got temporarily cut
off at the beginning of March during heavy snow and last winter was very
mild overall!!!

Shaun Pudwell.


"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Shaun Pudwell writes:
I took this from the Met Office Site:
snip

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given
the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

snip
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style winter
with
one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss about????

Saying that the winter is expected to be colder than those experienced
since 1995-6 (or indeed 1996-7) doesn't preclude the possibility that it
will prove to be colder than 1995-6 as well. But no doubt if recent
winters had been as cold as those that we had become accustomed to
between say 1978 and 1987, the Met Office wouldn't have thought a
warning necessary. It's because people (and the utilities in particular)
may have been lulled into a false sense of security that a "heads up" is
prudent.

Also the CET for the winter as a whole, or for the coldest month,
doesn't tell the whole story. Some areas could be colder than "Central
England". Also a month with a CET of 2.5 could be slightly cold all the
way through, or could have say two mild weeks and two weeks of really
severe conditions. The latter would obviously be much more worthy of a
warning.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)