The NHC Jurisdiction ends at 15W as does the GFDL model which has been the
best Hurricane performer during 2005. UKMO and GFS all dissipate this system
within 36 hours into the South East moving cold front - however none of
these models started with the hurricane in place - both were looking at a
1003mb low.

I do wonder if .... the USAF will fly a pane into this and drop a sonde, not
least to prove that it actually a warm cored system with hurricane force
winds.

Also to note.... in Europe we base our sustained wind speeds on a 10 minutes
average - were for hurricanes it is taken for 1 minute average. So by Euro
standards this would not have hurricane force winds (just below in fact)

//Stuart Robinson
TORRO

PS I looks at chasing this, aiming for Vido in N.W. Spain - but the cost of
the flights were just unreal !




"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Stuart Robinson" wrote in message
...
TS Vince was just upgraded to a CAT1 hurricane in the 21Z Forecast
Advsiory
posted by the NHC

I was wondering where the NHC's jurisdiction ends, so to speak. IIRC a few
years ago they passed the responsibility over to the Met Office for one
particular storm system - it went something like "for future updates see
the
Shipping Forecast" !

Jon.