Adrian D. Shaw wrote:
Felly sgrifennodd Malcolm :

No, it won't be the same story as surely the probability of it happening
will have increased!


Maybe that was tongue-in-cheek, but just in case it wasn't, statistically
that argument is wrong. Of course, the press won't understand that.

Say I toss a coin 10 times, and each time it comes up tails. The chance of it
being heads next time is still 1 in 2.

Adrian

Interesting, though the probability of turning up 10 tails(mild winters
say) in a row is 1024 to 1 so a 65% chance of a cold winter makes for a
pretty easy statement.
Alan