"Normal" covers a wide range. Snow and frost are normal. Rain and
gales are normal. Mild SW'lies are normal. Cold dry NE'lies are
also normal in winter.

Sadly, Joe Public on his Clapham bus might have difficulty
understanding this. He might understand "average" although that
really is a misnomer.

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years. There is also a 2 in 3 chance
that the rainfall will be less than the mean for the past ten years.
To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years, but
that isn't clear in the press release.

No of course, to arrive at a mean figure (of anything) some numbers
will be higher than the mean, others lower.

But that concept was not understood by one Union Leader some years ago:
"I will not be satisfied until every worker in this country gets at
least the average wage"

Quite clearly, this coming winter is going to be "normal".

Jack