wrote in message
oups.com...
"Normal" covers a wide range. Snow and frost are normal. Rain and
gales are normal. Mild SW'lies are normal. Cold dry NE'lies are
also normal in winter.

Sadly, Joe Public on his Clapham bus might have difficulty
understanding this. He might understand "average" although that
really is a misnomer.

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years.

IIRC, the "colder than average winter" prediction was based on 30 years data
rather than 10. Hence, its original significance..

Jon.