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Keith Dancey · October 31st 05, 12:58 PM posted to uk.sci.weather

In article , writes:

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years. There is also a 2 in 3 chance
that the rainfall will be less than the mean for the past ten years.

To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years, but
that isn't clear in the press release.

(Indeed... it could have been more explicitly worded.)

In support of Jon's posting, I think the Met Office were referring to the
the *long-term" average (ie. a rolling 30-year average) when they talked
about "averages" (because those were the figures they produced in the
forecast).

So, a ~66% chance of being colder than the current 30-year average, but not
as cold as 1995/96. For Southern England that would indicate a mean winter
temperature of between 3.5 and 4.5 C.

For other Regions:

Scotland - between 1.8 and 2.7
Northern England - between 2.4 and 3.5
Wales - between 2.8 and 4.2
Northern Ireland - between 3.7 and 4.3

Cheers,

keith

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