"Victor West" wrote in message
...

As of the 24th October (when they issued it) they were expecting a fairly
high probability that this winter would be the coldest since 1995/96.
Whether that turns out to be correct or not we'll have to wait and see.

Victor

The original forecast was issued around the 24th September and updated a
week ago. I'm 99% sure the original statement was based on 30 years of data.

Jon.