In article , "Victor West" writes:

"Keith Dancey" wrote in message
...
In article ,
writes:

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years. There is also a 2 in 3 chance
that the rainfall will be less than the mean for the past ten years.

To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years, but
that isn't clear in the press release.


(Indeed... it could have been more explicitly worded.)


In support of Jon's posting, I think the Met Office were referring to the
the *long-term" average (ie. a rolling 30-year average) when they talked
about "averages" (because those were the figures they produced in the
forecast).


So, a ~66% chance of being colder than the current 30-year average, but
not
as cold as 1995/96. For Southern England that would indicate a mean
winter
temperature of between 3.5 and 4.5 C.

For other Regions:

Scotland - between 1.8 and 2.7
Northern England - between 2.4 and 3.5
Wales - between 2.8 and 4.2
Northern Ireland - between 3.7 and 4.3



The forecast in
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research.../headline.html
says "The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those
experienced since 1995/6.". As far as I can see, it doesn't mention "colder
than the mean" or "colder than the 30 year average".


You should look again...

From your URL (updated October 24th):

"Our predictions continue to indicate a colder than average winter..."


From http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20050926.html
dated 26th September:

"the Met Office has given advanced warning to many of its customers and
partners to plan for a 'colder-than-average winter'."


From a posting dated September 28th:

Subject: Winter Forecast


"I have to take it that the wording "colder than average winter" (Winter
forecast 2005/6) and "colder-than-average-winter" (News release) refers to
the "long-term average" figures (30 years) quoted in the former only."




Cheers,


keith




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