In article , "Stuart Brooks" writes:
Keith Dancey wrote:
In article , "Victor West"
writes:

"Keith Dancey" wrote in message
...
In article ,
writes:

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that
there is a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have
temperatures lower than the mean for the past ten years. There is
also a 2 in 3 chance that the rainfall will be less than the mean
for the past ten years.

To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years,
but that isn't clear in the press release.


(Indeed... it could have been more explicitly worded.)


In support of Jon's posting, I think the Met Office were referring
to the the *long-term" average (ie. a rolling 30-year average) when
they talked about "averages" (because those were the figures they
produced in the forecast).


So, a ~66% chance of being colder than the current 30-year average,
but not
as cold as 1995/96. For Southern England that would indicate a mean
winter
temperature of between 3.5 and 4.5 C.

For other Regions:

Scotland - between 1.8 and 2.7
Northern England - between 2.4 and 3.5
Wales - between 2.8 and 4.2
Northern Ireland - between 3.7 and 4.3



The forecast in
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research.../headline.html
says "The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those
experienced since 1995/6.". As far as I can see, it doesn't mention
"colder than the mean" or "colder than the 30 year average".


You should look again...

From your URL (updated October 24th):

"Our predictions continue to indicate a colder than average winter..."


From
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20050926.html
dated 26th September:

"the Met Office has given advanced warning to many of its customers
and
partners to plan for a 'colder-than-average winter'."


From a posting dated September 28th:

Subject: Winter Forecast


"I have to take it that the wording "colder than average winter"
(Winter
forecast 2005/6) and "colder-than-average-winter" (News release)
refers to
the "long-term average" figures (30 years) quoted in the former only."


Funny how this has become converted by the press to it is definitely
expected that it will be the coldest winter since the big freeze of
1962-1963, (Daily Express) and "may be at least 2 degrees below average"
.....is that an oxymoron? Taking the biscuit was the preamble to the radio
interview I did last week when the announcer stated he had seen reports that
it was to be the coldest winter since the 1800s.......


Many journalists have behaved quite appallingly in misrepresenting what the
Met Office said, which was:

"The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced
*since* 1995/6"

The implication for the lower bound is, therefore, quite clear, but journalists
are more interested in squeezing sensation out of reality than getting at the
truth, and then using rediculous pedantic arguments to fend off accusations of
hyperventilated "spin". (Sounds just like New Labour:-(

Ann Diamond (Radio Oxford) quoted "coldest winter ever"!

Maybe the Met Office needs to be more aware that journalists will always look
to take the most extreme meaning from any statement, and place strict bounds
on such forecasts, along with their probabilities - something I have argued
for from the outset.


Cheers,


keith




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