To be fair Metcheck have published their methodology for once, of
course they are cashing in on the Met Office press misrepresentation.
I don't think they are being anything but sensible in doing this.
I have not put any work in yet and may not bother again this year
unless November is cold and wet.
From what little I have seen from the ecmwf seasonal progs Metcheck
seem to be on track.
But the Office are sticking to their guns - so the winter may be down
to normal.
Cheers
Paul

I'm afraid I am with you Paul on the longer term. My own preferred
methodology involves a consideration of the strength of the Autumn jet
stream, and the general vorticity. I do not believe I have seen anything
thus far which has inclined me to see any diminution of the strength of
these elements this Autumn. Hence although there may well be major
blocking, it will not involve a slack enough gradient for the
development of sustained cold pools. You can have a large Scandinavian
high on a snowless continent bringing strong easterly winds with hardly
a bite to them. Furthermore the large warm pool of waters in the North
Sea and channel will ameliorate any cold weather from the east for some
time to come.

No, as much as I would love to have enough snow for a snowman, it won't
be this year - and who knows when..

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown