I think that SST anomalies are of limited value in forecasting, except on
the local scale. The current SST is a reflection of what has happened to
that area of water in the past. It has a close affinity to the weather
patterns that have existed in in the past few days extending back to weeks
with decreasing amplitude of effect. Long-wave global dynamical patterns in
the mid-upper troposphere that largely determine the run of events in
mid-latitudes, are reasonably co-herent in the medium term. However, the
dynamics of the mid-upper troposphere is little influenced by small
relatively local SST anomalies compared with the overall inbalances that
naturally exist between the equator and poles.


--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html
"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
The more I look into the subject of SST anomalies and cold winters the
more I run into trouble. The link below is what I imagine an ideal SST
anomaly set-up in November for a -ve NOA / easterly set-up in the
winter. The problem is, it's 1997. Winter 1998 was anything but cold. I
know one example proves nothing, but it appeared incredible as it was
the first one I hit on.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...bl_00_sstanoma
ly.gif
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net