Keith (Southend) wrote:

The more I look into the subject of SST anomalies and cold winters the
more I run into trouble. The link below is what I imagine an ideal SST
anomaly set-up in November for a -ve NOA / easterly set-up in the
winter. The problem is, it's 1997. Winter 1998 was anything but cold. I
know one example proves nothing, but it appeared incredible as it was
the first one I hit on.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

I can't access that site but I agree with your analysis that the SST anomaly
should have produced more easterlies than usual. However, it doesn't
necessarily follow that the weather will be colder than usual just because
there are more easterly winds than usual. There were some spells in the
97/8 winter that fit the expected pressure anomalies - 2-4th and 15-29th
December, and 18th January to 3rd February - but the flow for some of these
periods was coming around a low-latitude Atlantic low and hence gave mild
wet weather. The only way to check whether the SST anomaly provided good
guidance would be to find mean surface-pressure-anomaly charts for each
winter month.

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell