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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.

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Summary valid for Sunday 04/12/05 to Saturday 10/12/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 01/12/05 2130 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First of all an apology for a bad forecast last week. Probably the worst for
quite some time. The weather has turned unsettled now with a deep low and strong
winds near the UK, contrary to what was expected here last week. It was a
judgement error, choosing to go along with older model runs, albeit at low
confidence, despite contradictions from later data.

Confidence is high this week, however, for a return to mainly dry weather from
the north during the week, but turning colder with an easterly setting in in the
south.

On Sunday a complex area of low pressure will be centred over the British Isles
bringing light to moderate variable winds and showers. Temperatures close to
normal. Patchy fog overnight Sunday/Monday where winds fall light and skies
clear.

On Monday and Tuesday this area of low pressure will slowly fill and move away
southeast into the continent as pressure builds from the northwest. Scotland and
Northern Ireland will turn dry and cold with frost at night. England will be
cloudy in the east with showers, possibly turning wintry later on hills.
Scattered showers, wintry on hills in southern Britain but other areas mainly
dry. Winds turning light but staying moderate east to northeast in the south.

The rest of the week looks like being mainly dry and rather cold with patchy fog
and frost at night. Risk of wintry showers in eastern England and perhaps in
southern areas at times.

Outlook for the following week with moderate confidence is for an easterly to
become established with mainly dry and cold weather in the north but risk of
rain, sleet and hill snow with strong winds spreading north into southern areas.

Finally here is the sledging and winter walking forecast for Dartmoor for
weekend 3/4th Dec:

No snow is expected to lie or fall on Dartmoor during the weekend. Freezing
levels will be well above the summits.

Will.

Chief forecaster HMO/USW



" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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