Alan Whitewick wrote:

Shaun Pudwell wrote:
It is my understanding that once there has been a flip in ocean
circulation states, the new state would not only be stable but dominant
and would be
very hard to change back. There would I imagine be more extensive sea
ice in and around the Arctic during the winter but don't know if the same
would apply to summer as well.

Shaun Pudwell.


"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

John Hall wrote:


In article ,
Peter Hayes writes:

Keith (Southend) wrote:


Peter Hayes wrote:


How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared
to
our traditional warm and moist south westerlies?


Surely the two go hand in hand.

Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream
stopped?


No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent.

My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a
virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong,
cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST
anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied.

In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the
weather
would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture
picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the
lee
of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool.

In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would
still
be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into
the Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with
snow showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could
be associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the
country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic.

One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will
be
the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off
the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning
to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents
will not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover
in the Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of
the Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD?


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell




Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not
forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic is
already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice is
melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else.

Who said anything about ice turning up somewhere else?

What
about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the more
frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this extra
heat must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a cooling
effect that every one seems to believe.

We're talking about a local cooling effect due to a change in ocean currents
that has happened before and produced cooling over NW Europe. No doubt this
would be balanced by some areas of the the world warming more than would be
indicated by AGW alone.

Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold
air and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything
like as cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced
by the usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December.


Agreed. In the sixties, there was more ice off East Greenland and
northerlies were colder than they are now, partly as a result of that. This
year, ice conditions in that area, the Barents and Kara Seas, at the end of
November were closer to that normally experienced at the end of October.


A less scientific view
Alan

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell