"Waghorn" wrote in message
. I wld think the latest IPCC report sets out the basic consensus
understanding pretty well-
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm

Consensus there may be, but I'm not convinced that there's much
understanding.

My understanding is that that at least in the near to medium term GW is
likely to manifest itself
thro changes in natural modes of climate variabilty eg NAO/AO (putting
aside the possibility of
rapid climate change via eg THC flips,Pace McDonald!).If the trend for the
NAO overall becomes
more +ve ,ie more zonal,this does not preclude years or even 10s of
years,when a -ve NAO is
possible,blocking is likely and cold air outbreaks can occur.

Absolutely. But that is, nonetheless, an awfully big "if".

It shld be remembered that variability occurs on a wide variety of time
scales,quite naturally,AGW
aside.

Including scales which we can only scratch the surface of, given the
limitations of proxy data.

pe