Most of it seems to have come up to Scotland. Over the last few years there
seems to have been substantial increases in rainfall totals particularly in
northern Scotland. Its my impression that there are an increasing number of
Highs over the southern UK leading to increasing frontal activity over the
peripheral areas to the north much of this activity seems to be much slower
moving leading to much higher daily totals: eg over 46mm yesterday.
I would appreciate comments on this perception from more experienced and
informed experts in this group. I have been trying to make comparisons on my
recent data with longer term data from Met Office stations nearby but could
not afford the £1000ish charge which the Met Office were trying to get from
me for monthly temp, rainfall, and wind data from just one site over a 10
year period. Certainly local perception is that there is a lot more heavy
prolonged rainfall as well an increasing frequency of severe gales and
storms than were common over the last 40 years.

Alan
www.carbostweather.co.uk

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...
Graham

Going on my records since 1989, there seems to be relatively little
change in the annual rainfall totals, it just seems to be shifting in
when it actually falls throughout the year, i.e., drier spring & summers;
wetter autumn and winters.

Yes, slightly drier spring & summer here as well. The rainfall here has
always been very seasonal, but is even more so now.

I believe this fits in with earlier models showing the effects of a
warming climate on the UK. If the climate continues to warm then this
shifting of rainfall pattern is predicted to get more extreme.

I agree. Also what I find interesting is the warming over the last couple
of decades here has been slightly greater in summer than winter. This
counters the argument that warmer winters are just down to the lack of
blocking conditions. Apparently CO2 emisions are apparently increasing at
a record 3.5% per annum. Partly because the politicians in the developed
countries are attempting to meet emission targets by exporting energy
hungry industries to the 3rd world. Looks like bye bye polar bears.

Graham
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
I'm not a meteorologist either but this winter dry spell is probably
down to natural variability and next year we could be inundated with
rainfall, overall though there is a pattern of ever increasingly drier
summers, and this applies to much of England but is more enhanced in
the south-east.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

It certainly seems to be down to natural variability here in Penzance,
although admittedly I'm not in the SE.
Winter rainfall totals as a % of the 1971-2000 norm being:-

Winter % of Norm
92/93 76
93/94 152
94/95 112
95/96 107
96/97 66
97/98 84
98/99 108
99/00 128
00/01 133
01/02 97
02/03 110
03/04 99
04/05 57
Av of the 13 years 102%
7 Winters wetter than average, 6 drier.

Overall it's beem getting slightly wetter in recent decades
1971-1980 Average - 1140.9mm
1981-1990 Average - 1165.9mm
1991-2000 Average - 1261.2mm
& warmer
1961-1990 Mean Temp - 11.1
1971-2000 Mean Temp - 11.3
1991-2000 Mean Temp - 11.6

Graham