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Old December 23rd 05, 08:20 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Graham Easterling Graham Easterling is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Nov 2004
Posts: 679
Default Whats happened to the south easts rain?


"Alan" wrote in message
...
Most of it seems to have come up to Scotland. Over the last few years
there seems to have been substantial increases in rainfall totals
particularly in northern Scotland. Its my impression that there are an
increasing number of Highs over the southern UK leading to increasing
frontal activity over the peripheral areas to the north much of this
activity seems to be much slower moving leading to much higher daily
totals: eg over 46mm yesterday.
I would appreciate comments on this perception from more experienced and
informed experts in this group. I have been trying to make comparisons on
my recent data with longer term data from Met Office stations nearby but
could not afford the £1000ish charge which the Met Office were trying to
get from me for monthly temp, rainfall, and wind data from just one site
over a 10 year period. Certainly local perception is that there is a lot
more heavy prolonged rainfall as well an increasing frequency of severe
gales and storms than were common over the last 40 years.

Alan
www.carbostweather.co.uk


Your perception is correct.

Taking summer rainfall for the period 1981-1990 & expressing it as a % of
1951-1980 figures, values range from 110% in NW Scotland to just 70% along
the south coast from the Isle of Wight eastwards.

Taking average annual rainfall 1961-90, expressed as a % of the 1941-70
figures, values range from 105% in NW Scotland to 95% in Essex.

Most models of climatic change forecast a continuation of this trend. E.g
according to a recent Hadley Centre model, 2050 annual rainfall totals,
expressed as a % of the 1961-1990 norm will range from 109% in northern
Scotland to 90% along the south coast.

Holiday in Cornwall - You know it makes sense.

Graham