"danny (west kent)" wrote in message
...
Hi Jon,
Thanks for the informative reply. My concern is how far west the the
colder
air gets. The cold is there but real the depper stuff make it far enough?
The UKMO is still the best this morning. The other models are somewhat
reluctant to move the whole block far enough West which would be needed
for
inland areas, even in the SE, to get lying snow of any accumalation.
Otherwise we get this slack Northerly element ;( .
Festive regards,
Danny.
----------------------------------------------------------------
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"danny (west kent)" wrote in message
...
Only if the UKMO is correct. The other models are going away from such
a
scenario. Still early days but it's a knife edge job regarding lying
snow.

We do tend to get more than our fair share of knife edge situations
regarding snow at low levels, e.g the 29th Nov, but I don't think this is
one of them.

Worth a look back to conditions on the 25th Nov when it settled quite
readily down here, even on already wet surfaces :-


11Z Camborne

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...F%3ASKEWT&YEAR
=2005&MONTH=11&FROM=2512&TO=2512&STNM=03808
500/1000mb TT 519dam

11Z Herstmonceux

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...F%3ASKEWT&YEAR
=2005&MONTH=11&FROM=2512&TO=2512&STNM=03882
500/1000mb TT 518dam

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/4469734.stm

Assuming the current progs come to fruition, and confidence looks good at
this stage, many eastern areas will experience sub 516dam 500/1000mb
thickness by Wednesday and sub 128dam 850/1000mb thickness in the far SE.
Hence there will be lying snow.

Jon. (tropical Mid-Devon)





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