Thanks for the update - I was thinking the winds were to much from a
southerley direction at first, fingers crossed then

Paul

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Paul Crabtree
Brampton, Cumbria
117m A.S.L
www.bramptonweather.co.uk
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Don't normally say too much in between my weekly forecasts but in light of
the
developing very cold and prolonged scenario I thought I'd say a few
things.
Looking at the last few runs of all the models I would say that the
ingredients
are coming into place for a possible major very cold spell. Confidence in
this
is now 40% at Haytor (rising from 10% last Friday). Very cold air pushing
down
from the Arctic (sub 492 DAM) to the east of the Russian anticyclone will
help
persistence as will the continued feed of low potential vorticity tropical
air
from the south to the west. Not quite a classic omega pattern yet but
could well
end up as one. Air close to the surface will become very cold as it
stagnates
due to radiation balance at this time of year so 850 hPa temperatures
of -5
to -10 deg C are easily attainable. Operational GFS is showing outbreaks
of
light snow over the UK in the developing easterly this is consistent and
to be
expected in a slightly unstable situation despite high pressure. Of course
the
orientation and resting place of the anticyclone is key as always as to
locations that get snow, all of southern Britain is at risk of at least
some
light snow. A wind either due east or south of east could give Devon and
Cornwall some persistent and heavier snowfall, but that detail is elusive
at
present. Clearly one has to go for a lot of dry cold weather too in
western
areas and I think eventually we will see fronts pushing in from the west,
but
these are likely to struggle more against a more intense block than last
time
due to:

1. Radiation balanace
2. Cold air advection from the north to the east of the high
3. Orientation and lack of a strong westerly flow coming out if the States
unlike last time

This one should be watched because we could be facing (40% chance) a month
of
very cold weather albeit on the dry side of normal.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

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DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
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