On Tue, 3 Jan 2006 10:07:10 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:


Thanks for your forecast Will - interesting as always. :-)

I'll confess right now that I am no more than an amateur model
watcher, but going on the model output alone (plus 'gut feeling') I
think that we're in for nothing more than a not particularly cold
'snap' followed by about average temps.

This is mainly based on watching the model output over the past few
days (mainly UKMO, ECM and GFS) - on Sunday the GFS was ramping up the
potential for a pretty major cold spell with dollops of snow. It
stayed that way for a few runs then slowly started to come into line
with ECM and UKMO which were predicting something much less severe,
namely winds swinging around to the south and bringing in less cold
air.

Now we all know that the model output is unreliable, especially when
forecasting beyond 3 or 4 days and particularly so this winter. Things
may well change again, but I'm becoming increasingly convinced that
any snow amounts will be very slight (and confined to the south east
for a day or two) and any cold will not be severe.

I'm still hoping for a major cold and snowy spell this winter as
things look most promising, but sad to say I don't think that this
forthcoming cold 'snap' is "the one".

Just my two cents' worth - please carry on with your forecasts which
are, let's admit it, usually very informative. :-)