"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
The reality is that so far in
most of the South East and East Anglia (and most likely lots of the rest of
the country - except Dartmoor ;-) ) it has been the most boring, dull,
non-extreme winter for several years.
Hi Dave, not as exciting as previous winters on Dartmoor. Very few gales, very
few days of *really* heavy driving rain (25mm per day) and very few showery
polar air days with frequent showers of hail, sleet and snow. OK we have had a
bit of sun, some rain (a lot by SE standards probably) and we have had a few
reasonable light snow falls, some frosts and a few "wind chill below freezing"
days but nothing out of the ordinary for up here. Yet !!!
As far as I can see the upper trough will relax away to the west of the UK next
weekend allowing an intrusion of rather cold air into SE England by Sunday
evening before the next system comes into NW Britain and then the next trough
relaxes away yet further west middle of next week allowing a greater push
westwards of the very cold air now over Russia. The push west will be like a
density current i.e. it will have a "nose" and the cold air will arrive at the
lowest levels first meaning that 850hPa temperatures will not be a useful
indicator for onset, screen temperatures will be the best guide. Odds are still
against a very severe cold spell in the UK but they are not zero and it is my
view that the UK will end up in a battleground with very cold air to the east or
even northeast of us and milder air to the southwest. Most of the "action" I
think could be in the west leaving eastern areas in a cold grey scenario with
occasional snow grains or drizzle. But we shall see, it's an awful long way off
yet. That was one of my three scenarios if you remember from one of my earlier
posts where I thought that pressure building right over the UK was the most
likely outcome. I've changed my mind slightly on that now. Either way the most
serious implication is that I cannot see SE England getting enough much needed
rainfall this winter which does not bode at all well for the summer water
situation.
Will.
--
" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
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