Thanks for that Will - what percentage.... - no sorry, only kidding ;-) .
It's interesting how the moors seemed to be designed to take the rain, with
their free draining soils and slopes. That measly 2mm has turned everywhere
into a temporarily sloppy mud here in flat old, clayey Essex.
I just hope we can get some sun and maybe some decent rain before the hoped
for cold push.
Cheers,
Dave
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
The reality is that so far in
most of the South East and East Anglia (and most likely lots of the rest
of
the country - except Dartmoor ;-) ) it has been the most boring, dull,
non-extreme winter for several years.

Hi Dave, not as exciting as previous winters on Dartmoor. Very few gales,
very
few days of *really* heavy driving rain (25mm per day) and very few
showery
polar air days with frequent showers of hail, sleet and snow. OK we have
had a
bit of sun, some rain (a lot by SE standards probably) and we have had a
few
reasonable light snow falls, some frosts and a few "wind chill below
freezing"
days but nothing out of the ordinary for up here. Yet !!!

As far as I can see the upper trough will relax away to the west of the UK
next
weekend allowing an intrusion of rather cold air into SE England by Sunday
evening before the next system comes into NW Britain and then the next
trough
relaxes away yet further west middle of next week allowing a greater push
westwards of the very cold air now over Russia. The push west will be like
a
density current i.e. it will have a "nose" and the cold air will arrive at
the
lowest levels first meaning that 850hPa temperatures will not be a useful
indicator for onset, screen temperatures will be the best guide. Odds are
still
against a very severe cold spell in the UK but they are not zero and it is
my
view that the UK will end up in a battleground with very cold air to the
east or
even northeast of us and milder air to the southwest. Most of the "action"
I
think could be in the west leaving eastern areas in a cold grey scenario
with
occasional snow grains or drizzle. But we shall see, it's an awful long
way off
yet. That was one of my three scenarios if you remember from one of my
earlier
posts where I thought that pressure building right over the UK was the
most
likely outcome. I've changed my mind slightly on that now. Either way the
most
serious implication is that I cannot see SE England getting enough much
needed
rainfall this winter which does not bode at all well for the summer water
situation.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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