GKN wrote:

It's a bit like the same crap our very own Met office churns out. As I've
said so many times before, lets wait and see.
I still claim that three days ahead is about the maximum accuracy you can
get no matter what fancy terms you spout whether it be American or
English.

Long-range forecasts are possible months and, in certain cases, years ahead.
You have to use different techniques to short-term forecasting. Obviously
it's not possible to put much detail on these forecasts but general trends
for a month, season, or decade, over a sizeable area can be given. Also you
have times when none of the tools you use are of much help and you just
have to say "I don't know", which, if you were honest is occasionally what
you had to with daily forecasts before the computer age.

At the time of its issue, I expressed doubts about the Met Office forecast
for a colder-than-average winter. In spite of the statistical evidence to
the contrary, I wasn't happy about using May SST for a winter forecast.
Also, the cold pool off the American seaboard did not appear strong enough
to convince me that a cold winter was worth betting on.


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell