Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Thu, 19 Jan 2006 18:01:02 -0000, "Buzz" wrote:


"Nick G" wrote in message
...
Winter here we come!!

I've just had a look at all the usual forecast charts and I cannot see any
evidence of even a short cold snap, let alone anything really cold. Am I
missing something here?

As for the charts 180, not worth going there.

Uhm strange comment given this GFS T+168 chart at 12z.

Based on the current GFS operational runs, what Will suggested as a
30% possibility is still a 30% possiblilty (or more) as far as I can
tell. What's interesting is that this possibility (for mid week next
week onwards) has been suggested consistently by GFS over the last few
days.

What started as T+240 chance is now closer than T+180 and the change
from a Westerly to an Easterly airmass origin is currently suggested
as starting by or before T+144 (albeit with the really cold air still
some distance to our East at that point).

The Met office statement that "the UK is not expected to experience
the extreme Winter conditions currently affecting eastern Europe" is
potentially misleading as even our most severe Winters are not *that*
severe!

Dave

Perhaps UKMO are going for the reverse psychology option now and
severely underplaying events instead of issuing silly warnings every
five minutes!