In message , Adrian D. Shaw
writes
Felly sgrifennodd Will Hand :
You're right of course Norman, but 1/1 (if indeed it pans out that way) is a
jolly good start for a 2/3 average :-)

I suspect there are people around here who would claim the MO were wrong
if they got 3/3, because they missed the 2/3. So either way the doubters
will not be appeased!

Adrian

I wasn't commenting on the forecast itself and I certainly wasn't
doubting it. I was commenting on the fact that the accuracy of a single
probability forecast cannot be assessed. The Met Office forecast covers
the possibility of a colder than average winter and also the possibility
of a warmer than average winter. Although the odds in the forecast are
more in favour of the former than the latter that doesn't mean that the
forecast would be incorrect if it turned out to be a warmer than average
winter.

If, over a representative sample of 2/3 probability forecasts the actual
event occurred 3 times out of 3 on average then the forecasting would be
considered fairly inaccurate.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England