No the models are not a waste of time. Useful signals are there if you know how
to interpret and understand them.

Forecasting is a *skilled* job. Can everybody become an architect, make
funiture, or do plumbing from scratch? It's the same in meteorology.

Here's a big hint. In the run up to this *potential* very cold spell my model of
choice has been ECMWF as it has performed very well. I use that model to form
the basic synoptic overview and signal and then the other models to fill in on
the potential details, discarding outliers (but not completely). The signal from
ECMWF has been consistent in bringing in a polar continental airmass but how
much the airmass will be modified by the time it reaches the UK depends on
detail that will become clearer with time.

I see no major changes to my weekly forecast signal.

Cheers,

Will.
--

"GKN" wrote in message
.uk...
The Models are a waste of time. IMO don't bother looking more than two days
ahead, because if it can change so drasically in six hours what is the hope
in six days!
Regards. Len.
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Its more like cup of Tea time for snow lovers this morning!
The 00Z run has almost got rid of the Easterly entirely.
I'm always amazed at how big the changes can be in 6 hours..
Phil