Will Hand wrote:
No the models are not a waste of time. Useful signals are there if you know how
to interpret and understand them.

Forecasting is a *skilled* job. Can everybody become an architect, make
funiture, or do plumbing from scratch? It's the same in meteorology.

Here's a big hint. In the run up to this *potential* very cold spell my model of
choice has been ECMWF as it has performed very well. I use that model to form
the basic synoptic overview and signal and then the other models to fill in on
the potential details, discarding outliers (but not completely). The signal from
ECMWF has been consistent in bringing in a polar continental airmass but how
much the airmass will be modified by the time it reaches the UK depends on
detail that will become clearer with time.

I see no major changes to my weekly forecast signal.

Cheers,

Will.

Thanks for trying to keep things level on the newsgroup. I imagine many,
like myself, had big hopes for this winter, and see it slipping away
gradually now. I was certainly gutted this morning to see things take a
turn for the worse as the 'two weeks away' scenario starts to become a
'bridge to far'. Yes, I know it can snow in late February and March, but
it doesn't stick around in a crisp and powdery form :-(

I think someone also mentioned the other day that the SST anomalies are
not favorable, certainly no cold pool to the south of Newfoundland,
quite the reverse. The Atlantic jet appears to be just to strong running
up the Norwegian Sea.

So, if we do get something in the next week or two, it won't be a
sustained event like we reminisce about with 47 or 63.

Now what have I done with GFS tablets I get from the doctors ?
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net