Dave.
Last week I stuck my head above the parapet and stated that the models
further out than 48 hours were a waste of time.
I know it didn't go down that well at the time as there were a number of
replies more or less saying leave it to the experts to make the forecasts.
My statement was purely based on the fact that we eagerly troll through
these computer models on a daily basis looking for the onset of cold
weather, but in reality what are the actual results.
I hear you say, about the always two weeks away.
Well there it is. Delusion is a very accurate description of what we
experience.
I blame nobody for trying to forecast the probable outcome, and full marks
to them if they correctly predict the final outcome, but we have been let
down by the models so many times we really need to shorten the timescales of
belief.
I have critisized the MO many times thinking they were just mild rampers but
I would like to retract that critisizm and say that the only thing that may
be over hyped now is the severe weather warnings that are issued.
I do believe, looking at the last four winters that the cold does seem to be
re-appearing with a little more regularity than during the winters of the
late 90s and early 2000s. So maybe the future looks more promising.

Regards. Len.


"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
Some of us on here (and I include myself) and certainly on TWO avidly
watch
the models for trends of cold weather. I have come to the conclusion that
we
have been largely deluding ourselves since November with the illusive cold
spell always seemingly two weeks away. "All the ingredients are there".
But
aren't they always in reality? Well very soon two weeks away will be too
late. It is clear that last week and current have come very close to
something special. No doubt the conditions over most of NW Europe were
those which the Met Office thought might come close to the UK in their
colder than average forecast for Europe.
It will be interesting to see if Will's boundless optimism will continue
tomorrow. I hope so.

Dave