In message , GKN
writes
Dave.
Last week I stuck my head above the parapet and stated that the models
further out than 48 hours were a waste of time.
I know it didn't go down that well at the time as there were a number of
replies more or less saying leave it to the experts to make the forecasts.
My statement was purely based on the fact that we eagerly troll through
these computer models on a daily basis looking for the onset of cold
weather, but in reality what are the actual results.
I hear you say, about the always two weeks away.
Well there it is. Delusion is a very accurate description of what we
experience.
I blame nobody for trying to forecast the probable outcome, and full marks
to them if they correctly predict the final outcome, but we have been let
down by the models so many times we really need to shorten the timescales of
belief.
I have critisized the MO many times thinking they were just mild rampers but
I would like to retract that critisizm and say that the only thing that may
be over hyped now is the severe weather warnings that are issued.
I do believe, looking at the last four winters that the cold does seem to be
re-appearing with a little more regularity than during the winters of the
late 90s and early 2000s. So maybe the future looks more promising.

Regards. Len.

I agree Len. The models do seem biased, overestimating the strength &
growth of the continental highs, and under estimating the strength of
Atlantic systems to keep the highs to the east. Hence, the cold is
always 10 days away but never happens.
I too got shot down when criticising excitement shown over the T+240 GFS
for this Saturday, 28th.
Anyway, I've been collecting the GFS forecasts for Jan 28 as the days
have rolled by, I may put them all up on the web sometime.
--
steve

Weather at Scotton, Knaresborough, North Yorkshire
http://www.knaresboroughweather.co.uk