"Iain Mackay" no_one@here wrote in message
...
Martin
Sorry - can't remember the exact dates. It was probably mid June 1987.
The weather had been clear and settled for the previous week days
before we began thinking about the run home.

.... if it was 1987 (June), then it was certainly an unsettled start to
the month, with strong winds up until the start of the second week, but
gradients easing thereafter. I can't see anything in the synoptic
situation to indicate why a forecast of strong winds (across such a wide
area) would be issued when none occurred - it's usually the other way
about at that time of year! However, without knowing the dates etc., it
is pointless at this range to speculate further.

I was curious to to find out if the underlying modelling process for
high pressure systems had/has a known (or suspected) weakness under
some conditions and keep that in mind when considering how to respond
to forecasts in future.

.... the modelling has improved enormously since that time: I hadn't
realised you were thinking nearly 20 years ago ;-) As noted in my
earlier response, although not perfect, the modern generation of models
as regards *wind* forecasts are pretty good; it is usually the
interpretation and poor means of communication that are the problem,
rather than the raw model output. Other output (cloud, rain etc.) of
course *do* still cause problems, as at the start of this thread.

Martin.


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