Darren Prescott wrote:

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0545, 18 Feb 06.

In summary, the models still show a cold spell looming for the UK, with high
pressure to the north slowly retrogressing towards Greenland. The GFS shows
the potential for snow across England and Wales on Thursday, accompanied by
strong to gale force winds giving rise to blizzard-like conditions - one to
watch, but certainly impossible to predict with any accuracy at this range.

Snow is likely in prone areas though, especially over higher ground in
eastern areas. It also looks likely that a pulse of less cold air will
circulate around the high at the end of the week, as the high retrogresses
NW'wards and the milder air that was carried northwards to our west sinks
southwards again over the UK.

As ever in these situations it's worth keeping an eye on your local
forecasts via the BBC and Met Office, as snow is notoriously difficult to
predict until the eleventh hour!

How does the present fog/thick mist affect the matrix for these models
(seeing that such mists might be concurrent with building cyclonic
activity in the tropics?)

At the moment, there are no large tropical storms posted on Eric
Hablich's site. So I take it that fairly long range forecasts would not
have been prepared from data that could compensate for such
developments?

Is it really so?

And might the rather large intro here be considered a warning of
uncertainties to be found in all weather forecasts in the VNF? A sort
of weatherforcast forecast, so to speak?

Now I suppose I had better RTFA.