Graham P Davis wrote:

As forecast by N E Davis about 35 years ago! Well, "forecast" is perhaps too
strong a word but he did point out the 100-year (if I remember correctly)
temperature cycles of the seasons and that they were out of phase with each
other. Winters were at the low point of their cycle in the sixties and, if
the cycle continued, they would still be warming and heading for a maximum
in ten years time. Autumns were in about an opposite phase to winters and
were then just passing their maximum and so should be reaching their
coldest point in a decade. Springs had just come to the end of a 50-year
warm period and were headed for 50 cold years. I can't remember the pattern
for the summers but am guessing the opposite phase to the springs.

Interesting speculation on cycles. Obviously there was nothing to go on
for the state of the ice cover in the Arctic but he seems to have made
a good stab at the same results with the tools he had available to him.
Who was this genius?

And can anybody forward me a copy of this article. I'd hate to have to
go to the Yanks for it:


The variability of the onset of spring in Britain

Author: N.E. DAVIS

Source: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume
98, Number 418, October 1972, pp. 763-777(15)

Publisher:Royal Meteorological Society


Abstract:
The first day of spring is defined in terms of daily maximum
temperatures. Spring at Oxford as defined begins some time between the
third week of February and the last week of April. The average date
shows a secular change over the last hundred years.

The date of the first day of spring is shown to be related to ice
conditions in the Baltic and in the Iceland area, to the sea
temperature pattern in the North Atlantic, the circulation patterns at
500 mb and to various atmospheric indices. Rules developed from these
relationships enable 'statistical' forecasts for the first day of
spring to be made.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.41804