Hi Will,
Thanks for your thoughts.
I never have much confidence in Northerlies for my part of the world. 'Lows'
and other 'features' forecast, never really materialise and the North, NE
(and West to a lesser extent) usually do best.
And, Northerlies usually disappoint form *most places* in recent times.
Best regards, Danny.
P.S I find it interesting that a "Northerly" is 95% of the time a
North -WESTERLY.

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"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
wish to
share freely with others.


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Summary valid for Sunday 26/02/06 to Saturday 04/03/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 23/02/06 1930 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First a few words about last week's forecast which was not up to the usual
standard. Main error was that the deep low on Sunday tracked further south
than
expected and so rain was not as heavy nor last as long as expected.
Because the
rain was not as heavy it did not turn to snow at low levels or even over
low
hills on Dartmoor. Knock on effects were that the low-level flow was not
as
strong and was slower in advecting colder air from the east, hence really
cold
weather did not arrive till mid-week in lowland England. Also in the north
some
milder air got dragged over the top of the high to return today as a warm
front
coming in from the northeast - not picked up last thursday. So I apologise
for
those errors.

OK, this Sunday and Monday look like being cold and bright days with
plenty of
sunshine around especially in the north. The sun is now strong enough to
melt
lying snow quickly. In southern England a strong east wind will persist,
probably bringing some wintry showers, especially to Devon and Cornwall
giving
more snow over the moors. Staying cold with frost at night, locally severe
over
snow cover away from the south.

On Tuesday and Wednesday the development of a cyclonic northerly regime as
the
high retreats to Iceland/Greenland area will bring very cold air south to
all
areas. Potentially then a lot of snow in exposed northern and eastern
areas with
drifting in the strong to gale force northerly winds. On the other hand
many
inland areas, such as the Midlands and large parts of southern england
will stay
dry with sunny spells. Severe frost in sheltered areas at night. Always
the risk
of troughs/polar lows coming south bringing more widespread snow, troghs
more
likely to affect western areas such as west Wales and Devon and Cornwall.

For the rest of the week indications are that the northerly flow will ease
gradually and many inland areas should stay dry and bright but very cold
with
frost at night, possibly some fog later too. More snow in exposed
northern,
eastern and some western areas.

So to summarise, very high confidence for cold weather to continue all
week.
Moderate confidence for some very heavy snowfall with local blizzards in
exposed
northern and eastern areas. Low confidence for significant snow elsewhere,
exposed western areas more likely than inland central parts which could
stay dry
throughout the week.

Outlook for the following week beginning 5/3/06.

Rain, preceeded by snow spreading to all areas by midweek, then mild and
changeable. Low confidence in this change.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 26th/27th February 2006.

Well what can I say! Excellent winter walking and sledging prospects all
weekend. Snow may turn a bit soft and melt below 300m asl on Saturday but
by
Sunday colder air and a frosty night will ensure optimum winter
conditions.
Enjoy, but take care on the high plateau as wind chill will be severe.
Snow
tyres/chains/4WD may be necessary if driving on the more remote upland
tracks.
Temperatures -1 to +3 deg C depending on altitude and sunshine. Confidence
high
for the best weekend of the winter so far

Will Hand

Chief forecaster

Last week's forecast below as usual


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Summary valid for Sunday 19/02/06 to Saturday 25/02/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 16/02/06 2000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Moderate confidence that this week will see the first widespread snowfall
of the
winter in England and Wales. Possible disruption to transport services.
Very
high confidence, however, that the week will be very cold with
northeasterly
winds setting in.

On Sunday a developing low will track east across northern France and then
become slow moving over Belgium and Holland before filling up by midweek
and
then drifting south. The low will spread rain eastwards across southern
coastal
counties on Sunday morning with strengthening east or northeast winds. The
rain
will turn heavy and persistent giving a spell of snow above 400m asl.
Track
uncertain, so northern edge uncertain. Later in the day as the low turns
slightly northeast the rain will spread into much of SE England and the
Midlands
and during the evening will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on hills
above
about 150m asl. During the night the precipitation should drift eastwards
with
SW England becoming mainly dry but by Monday morning sleet and snow will
be
falling at low levels as temperatures fall to freezing giving a covering
of snow
in east and SE England. Lower risk of snowfall further west and north but
certainly possible. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cold and showery
with
sleet and snow on high ground. NW England showery with wintry showers on
hills
but possibly some rain, sleet and snow getting into NE England on Monday.
Winds
fresh to strong northeasterly in the south and east with some drifting
snow on
high ground. Moderate to fresh winds further north.

On Tuesday and Wednesday moderate to fresh, locally strong, east or
northeasterly winds will bring further spells of rain, sleet and snow to
all
areas. Rain mainly near the coast and on very low ground but inland, and
especially over hills, several centimetres of snow are likely in exposed
places.
East and SE England seem likely to catch most snow. However, SW England
(especially moors) could get some heavy snow on Wednesday as a front
brushes by
from the east. NW England and Scotland and Northern Ireland, brighter but
still
with wintry showers and some drifting on high ground.

For the rest of the week the trend will be for pressure to build to the
north of
Britain, so staying very cold and much drier in the north with severe
frost
setting in at night. Further sleet and snow showers in the south and east
with
frost at night. Drifting of lying snow in the moderate to fresh winds in
the
south.

Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for it
to stay
very cold with severe overnight frosts and further sleet and snow at
times.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 18th/19th February 2006.

Saturday looks like being mainly cloudy with spells of rain. Possibly some
sleet
and snow above 500m asl. Some sunny intervals below 300m asl. On Sunday
rain
with snow above 400m asl will set in during the early hours. Winds will
become
easterly fresh to strong with local gales on the south moor where blizzard
and
dangerous whiteout conditions are possible on the plateau for a time. Rain
turning increasingly to snow at all levels during the day but also tending
to
die out from the west. Confidence moderate. Temperatures generally 1-4 deg
C but
falling to freezing above 300m asl by end of Sunday. Walkers are advised
to get
an up to date weather check before venturing out on Sunday. Sledging
conditions
could become good on Sunday afternoon but strong winds and heavy snow may
make
access difficult, also drifting could become a problem.


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" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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