David, yes the mes. usually has a good stab at such features. Looking at the
radar, it may be the SW as opposed to the SE that sees a squall line.

Will.
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"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
UPDATE Monday1430Z

PPN over Scotland becoming more extensive,further organisation should occur
as front heads south.GFS predicts jet core will be over the west later
today, difficult to say how strong the upper forcing will be on the it's
eastern flank.A smidgeon of CAPE is present in the Herstmonceux sounding at
12Z,and a little low level shear.Likeliest area for thunderstorms is
probably in the southern North Sea where more CAPE is likely to be present
(~100J/Kg at de Bilt, 12Z).
However, I wld think a squall line is still possible over E/SE england
tonight-if a density/gravity current head can form on the nose of cold air
then higher theta air can be mechanically lifted and vertical velocity in a
shallow layer may be high enough for thunder,hail and snow.
Dunno if Will Hand can comment on how well the UKMO mesoscale model handles
such a phenomenon,


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regards,
David

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