Norman Lynagh wrote:

Not so much the nature of the weather, more the over-acceptance that
model output will be reliable.

/rant mode on/
What is the value of a forecast if the actual weather falls outside of
the limits set by the forecast? So often in this country the situation
is not an easy one to call, especially when looking more than 24 hours
ahead. Unfortunately, the forecasts issued to Joe Public seldom convey
the range of uncertainty. Instead they tend to concentrate either on
what is deemed to be the most probable scenario or on the more severe
end of the range of probabilities.
/rant mode off/

I agree with this but, on the more positive side, it is this sort of
dumbed down forecasting that pushed me towards seeking the real truth.
In other words, it spurred me on to find out for myself what the weather
was really likely to do. It did not take long, helped by the enthusiasm
in this newsgroup, for me to get the weather bug. There may well be
others who have followed a similar route. I see the TV forecasts as
being our recruiting sergeants.


--
Howard Neil