Norman Lynagh wrote:
In message , Rob
writes
Paul wrote:
Did anyone see the BBC One's Weather forecast at 07:15AM Friday
morning, it looked at though the East of England including the
Midlands was going to have persistant snow at the weekend.

Saw the forecast later however at it had completely changed! Snow
now forecase to just Scotland and possible N. England.

We still haven't had any decent snow in Leicestershire! (10-20cms)
This Winter

That the nature of the weather, the forecast changes as more up to
date models produce their output. Plus it's not an easy one to
call, I thought some friends of mine going up Scafell Pike in the
Lake District would be caught in it, but it looks like they're be ok
this morning. --
Rob Overfield

Not so much the nature of the weather, more the over-acceptance that
model output will be reliable.

/rant mode on/
What is the value of a forecast if the actual weather falls outside of
the limits set by the forecast? So often in this country the situation
is not an easy one to call, especially when looking more than 24 hours
ahead. Unfortunately, the forecasts issued to Joe Public seldom convey
the range of uncertainty. Instead they tend to concentrate either on
what is deemed to be the most probable scenario or on the more severe
end of the range of probabilities.
/rant mode off/

Agreed.

Rant away, Norman, I think you've hit the nail on the head.
--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://talkingtoomuchagain.blogspot.com