When I joined the group a few years ago I tended to blame the forecasters
for poor forecasts. Then I learned that although it was stated as if fact it
was realy the best guess on the information available. Then it was clear
that anything past 5 days was very unreliable. But, now, despite my best
efforts, I am wondering just how good computer modelling really is. I mean
what did those balloons really tell that model that made it change so
quickly. There lies the mystery and the perpetual "soap" of it all I guess.

Dave