Mike,

If your guess is correct: Did you look at this
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/
site?

If it passes over the "current loop" in the Gulf of Mexico hell
really breaks loose. But anyway, that is a very remote possibility.

Mazzel & broge / kind regards, Evert Wesker
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
http://come.to/wesker (redirect URL, no adv's), or
http://www.euronet.nl/users/e_wesker/


On Thu, 02 Sep 2004 12:52:44 -0500, Mike1
wrote:

Scott wrote:

I'm not sure how shear-free the environment will be
over the GufMex should Frances emerge into it.


If Frances moves into the Gulf, it'll probably be via following a track
which briefly slides right-of-projection (i.e., NW, feinting at S.Car),
then slows down, then hooks due west and picks up speed across the
pennisula. (It would then gradually recurve northwest into the northern
Gulf coast.)

If it does that, it could (following analogies) intensity explosively
upon the hook-west portion of the leg, as that implies resumption of
deep easterly flow.

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