"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
ups.com...
Weatherlawyer wrote:
Storm-track projections on target:
As early as three days before Katrina pulverized the Gulf Coast, the
hurricane center warned that New Orleans was in the Category 4
hurricane's path. Storm-track projections released to the public more
than two days (56 hours) before Katrina came ashore were off by only
about 15 miles - and only because the hurricane made a slight turn to
the right before hitting land just to the east of New Orleans.
That is better than the average 48-hour error of about 160 miles and
24-hour error of about 85 miles.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9369041/
The thought just occurred to me that I would like to see the tracks of
tropical and other ocean storms overlaid on maps of the sea floors.
I have never come accros such things but I can't think why there are
none on the net. It seems to me just as simple an image to produce as
the commonplace one of depicting their tracks at sea level.
I was going throught the original thread this post is from when the
above thought occurred to me. Is there anything like that out there?
Anyone know?
This is what crossed my mind:
Storm-track projections released more before Katrina came ashore
were off by only about 15 miles...
...and only because the hurricane made a slight turn to the right...
East of New Orleans is a large body of water. Did the hurricane steer
towards that? If so, why?
And don't just quote contemporary theory.
While awaiting Katrina to hit S Florida, the eye came over where
I live, the same thought occurred to me. It was heading west and was
supposed to turn a bit north of west as it made landfall. Then the
prediction was to weaken as it crossed the central part of Florida
and enter the gulf as a tropical storm at best.
Instead it turned a bit south as it made landfall, straight for the
heart of the Everglades. Which is a large area of shallow warm
water. So it ended up holding it's strength over the glades and
hit the southwest corner of Florida as a complete surprise
in both track and strength.
It's not the first time I've seen that happen either, Andrew
did the same thing. In fact both Andrew and Katrina, the two
most expensive US natural disasters, came over the east Florida
coast at 26' 4" and 26' 8" respectively. I live at 26' 6" ~
All that warm shallow water in the glades, and in the shallow Bermuda
triangle adjacent to it, are famous for their summer thunderstorms.
Which means to me a low pressure area more often than not.
Low pressures should attract an otherwise drifting hurricane
I would think.
It would seem to me water temp charts are better than
a sea floor map. But in watching these things closely since
moving here in 92, the water vapor loops give the best
indication of future tracks. And watching the direction of the
high altitude cirrus outflow from the eye can give a clue as to
sudden changes in direction. The NHC has a much harder
time predicting changes in strength then path though.
"A real-time global sea surface temperature (SST) analysis has
been developed.....The Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane
Center uses the SST analyses in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity in
statistical hurricane models"
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml
You can get storm track data here.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml