jonathan wrote:
"Weatherlawyer"

It would seem to me water temp charts are better than
a sea floor map. But in watching these things closely since
moving here in 92, the water vapor loops give the best
indication of future tracks. And watching the direction of the
high altitude cirrus outflow from the eye can give a clue as to
sudden changes in direction. The NHC has a much harder
time predicting changes in strength then path though.

"A real-time global sea surface temperature (SST) analysis has
been developed.....The Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane
Center uses the SST analyses in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity in
statistical hurricane models"
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

I was looking at consecutive lunar phase induced spells when we began
to hit these cycles last year. Coupled with what I had read about sea
surface temperature anomalies and their relationship to the so called
El Nino effect I thought I'd have a stab at predicting an oscillation.

If you would care to check the phases of the moon against records of
serious hurricane years you might come up with something interesting:
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html