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Old October 27th 05, 06:43 PM posted to alt.talk.weather,sci.space.policy,sci.geo.geology
George George is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Feb 2005
Posts: 60
Default MY MISERABLE STORY ......Hurricane Wilma


"jonathan" wrote in message
...

It spun up without the eye tightening much.. That NEVER happens.


Umm, When Wilma was a Cat 5 hurricane, it's eye shrank to a mere four miles
in diameter. It didn't spin up after that. It spun down. It's behavior
was predictable.

It had an eye half the size of the Montana for chrissakes.
This is an unprecedented and significant change in hurricane behavior.


You don't know much about other hurricanes, do you?

It's almost hundred mile wide southern stream of air feeding
the vortex was a most impressive event to witness. You could almost
set your watch by the timing of the lulls and explosive gusts. It had a
symmetry and mass to it that boggles the imagination.


Symmetry? When it was over the Gulf headed for Florida, it had a most
pronounced asymmetry. It was elongated from the northeast to the southwest
because of the jetstream it ran into over the Gulf. That jetstream was
steering the hurricane straight towards Florida. Its presence is why the
NHC forcast before it even left the Yucatan that it would strike Florida .
The timing of the lulls and explosive gusts you mention is typical of all
hurricanes. They are called feeder bands, and all hurricanes have them.

For crying
out loud the gusts literally shook the ground. No kidding, the ground
was swaying back and forth under my feet.


Hurricanes often do that. Welcome to Earth.

But the NHC will not want to talk about it. Why? Because
someone might then ask why are they bigger. Their 20 year
hurricane cycle won't explain it, were they bigger the last
few cycles? Being near a peak solar cycle won't fully explain
it either. We've had both those cycles operating for ages.


No doubt the cycle has operated for ages. But the fact remains that we have
very little long-term data on the formation and growth of hurricanes. Most
of the data has been collected in the last 100 years. Geologically
speaking, that is a very short period of time. It is very risky to make
long-term predictions based on such a small database.